FaCeT

Protected areas form the backbone of global conservation strategies. For many seabird and marine species, protected areas serve as critical refuges and food sources. At the same time, there are growing concerns as to whether protected areas will continue to afford protection to populations of marine animals and their habitats under climate change.

Marine Protected Areas

As climate change accelerates, marine protected areas are under increasing pressure to conserve marine life. Rising temperatures, changes in current strength, and other oceanographic shifts are altering habitats within these zones. Alterations in species migration and movement in response to changing ocean conditions present another challenge to these important areas.

FaCeT is collaborating with personnel from three protected areas in the Northwest Atlantic: Stellwagen Bank, Northeast Canyons and Seamounts, and Hudson Canyon.

map showing location of the three protected areas: Hudson Canyon at the mouth of the Hudson River; Northeast Canyons and Seamonts northeast of Hudson Canyon (and in deeper waters); and Stellwagen Bank just east of Boston. — Spatial boundaries of the three protected areas FaCeT is collaborating with in the Northwest Atlantic. Water color gradient represents the bathymetry (underwater depth) in this region. Source: NOAA’s ETOPO Global Relief Model.

Working with team members from these protected areas, and in collaboration with the Northeast Regional Ocean Council, FaCeT is developing new data visualizations and tools to help support efforts across the areas. Our work focuses on a range of indicator species including tunas, sharks, billfish, forage fish, marine mammals, and seabirds.

Five Project Areas

FaCeT's new data visualizations and tools fall into five focus areas, and are in varying stages of development.

Track habitat change

The first two maps below compare historical (1990-1999, left map) to expected future (2090-2099, center map) habitat suitability to understand how species distributions will likely change between those time frames. Habitat gains are shown in yellow and losses are shown in blue. The change between the two timeframes is visualized in the third map on the right, where habitat gain is shown in yellow and loss is shown in maroon.

a sample map comparison of an area encompasing the Northwest Atlantic showing habitat suitability variations — Maps illustrating habitat suitability changes over time in the Northwest Atlantic by comparing past to future projections.

Characterize changes in species phenology/timing

This project is in the early stages of development. We look forward to sharing our progress with you.

Describe refugial capacity for each area

Here, we are identifying the refugial capacity within and around marine protected areas in the Northwest Atlantic, where darker colors indicate the number of top marine predator species (specifically among tunas, sharks, and billfish) and forage fish (Atlantic mackerel, Atlantic herring, sand lance, and menhaden) that will lose habitat.

Two maps shown: 1. Top Predators, showing 0-8 species affected (most areas fange from 1-3); 2. Forage Fish, showing 0-4 species affected (most areas showing 1-2). — Number of top marine predator species and key forage fish that will lose habitat both within and around marine protected areas in the Northwest Atlantic.

Map the intensity of marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are episodic ocean warming events that alter regional oceanographic processes and can lead to cascading impacts on socio-ecological systems.

To track their impacts, the intensity of MHWs, represented as sea surface temperature anomaly (°C) in the map below, and their spatial extent (white contours) will be detected for the Northwest Atlantic region where the three protected areas are located.

Image caption and above text.describe image. — Map of marine heatwave intensity in the Northwest Atlantic.

Identify marine heatwave frequency

As we document the intensity of MHWs, we are also identifying their frequency in each of the protected areas to better understand which areas are more heavily impacted.

The following set of time series charts show sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa, black lines) within each protected area. Periods classified as a marine heatwave are shown as red shading. The seasonally varying 90th percentile threshold, which defines MHWs, in each protected area is shown as green dashed lines.

Temperature variations shown between -2.5 to +7.5 degrees Celsius for each protected area from January 2000 to January 2024. Stellwagen Bank shows the least variability and Northeast Canyons and Seamounts shows the most variability. All show points where the 90th percentile threshold is reached several times. — Time series of sea surface temperature anomalies and MHWs in and around three Northwest Atlantic marine protected areas.

Warming Waters and Species Survival

Due to the likely limited capacity of MPAs to serve as refuges for marine species in the future, FaCeT is particularly interested in how marine heatwaves and other climate impacts may affect species survival. For example, some of our findings show predicted changes in the range and/or population sizes of specific species as they adapt to warming waters.

Learn more about our research in these areas: